Both to the primary and for secondary requirement determination three in principle different methods can be used.

Stochastic ascertainment of need

Basis of the stochastic method are the values consumed of the past. These values are statistically evaluated and updated in the form of prognoses into the future. A condition for the application of stochastic methods is a sufficient database, which is called it must sufficient information about consumption in the past be present. Stochastic methods are not suitable for new products and high-quality A-parts. For spare parts they are conditionally suitable, if the database is large enough and the installed and still in the employment plant basis present one considers. The necessary procurement time is more largely than the demanded delivery time, this concerns inferior and/or standardized goods (C and B-parts)

With the selection of the respective procedure the need is to be considered. During the stochastic ascertainment of need mathematical-static procedures, which are developed on the probability theory, are used:

• Naive prognosis
• Arithmetic average value
• Sliding average value
• Weighted one sliding average value
• Linear regression analysis
• Not linear regression analysis
• exponential smoothing 1. Order
• exponential smoothing 2. Order

see stochastics

If the possibility is given a consumption controlled arrangement and besides a sufficient database available, the employment of stochastic procedures is recommendable, because a meaningful division of labor between humans and data processing systems is given and thus the routine task of the planning manager is reduced. In this way a planning manager has the possibility of concentrating on problematic articles like e.g. articles with strongly varying need.

Deterministic ascertainment of need

With the deterministic method the Bedarfe is determined accurately after quantity and date on the basis of concrete orders or the production program.

Typical fields of deployment: With customer orders the necessary procurement and turn-around time must be smaller than the demanded delivery time. When planning after the production program which is based on a merchandising scheme this is to be neglected. The deterministic method is used at high-quality and/or customized goods, which have partly a long replacement time. In principle the deterministic ascertainment of need is to be aimed at, because thereby the stock can be kept low. In operational practice she is to a large extent unproblematic, because today all usual production planning and - control systems (PPS systems) able are, on the basis of product structure data, for example by bill explosion, the need accurately to be determined.

Heuristic ascertainment of need

With the heuristic method the determined Bedarfe is based on qualified, subjective estimations of the experienced planning manager. It is suitable for inferior products, for which no sufficient database for stochastic procedures is present. It is unfavorable during the heuristic ascertainment of need that a planning manager for a good estimation must regard each article individually. At a large number disposing article becomes an individual view of each article for the planning manager therefore too and it is forced to rough estimations. The prognosis errors resulting from it become overall balanced by safety stock amounts the guarantee of the stock availability.

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