The term reciprocal effect analysis or English CROSS Impact analysis designates a prognosis technology to analyze tries the connections (English CROSSes impact) between different to possibly represent in the future to arising events and to consider their mutual effects. From experience we know that the most events and/or developments stand on any way with other events and developments in relationship. Many other prognosis techniques, as for instance the Delphi method can regard only a defined problem definition. The linkages of individual events are not considered thereby. This gap fills the CROSS Impact analysis. It is used therefore among other things in the scenario technology.

The probability that a certain event comes to conditions, is affected directly by the entrance and/or nonfulfilment of another event. The CROSS Impact analysis makes it possible to determine the probability of entrance of each event as a function of other events. It was developed 1966 by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer, and resulted from the simple question: whether forecasts can be based on it, how future events mutually to affect each The first application of the CROSSes Impact method took place in connection with a play ("‚Future'), which Gordon and Helmer for the emperors Aluminium and Chemical company developed.

Proceeding

1. Determination of the events: The first step of an CROSS Impact analysis is to find those out events which can be considered. This step is success critical. On the one hand can all relevant, not considered developments, which exert an influence nevertheless, which falsify result. On the other hand a too exact analysis, which considers each erdenkliche event, can complicate the study unnecessarily. There the number of the interactions of the different pairs equal n^2-n (n = number of the events) is, mostly considers one between 10 and 40 events. This initial list of events takes place usually via a summary of existing data and a questioning from experts.

2. Probabilities of entrance estimate: With the estimation of the probabilities of entrance for each event each event is regarded independently/isolated to consider i.e. without possible influences from other developments to.

3. Conditioned probabilities compute: Afterwards the conditioned probabilities are determined. One follows for each pair of events of the following question: If event m occurs, how the new probability of entrance for event n From this the CROSS Impact matrix develops:

{| border= " 1 " cellspacing= " 0 " cellpadding= " 5 "

! rowspan= " 2 " | if these event occurs"… || || colspan= " 4 " |"… changes the probability of entrance of"… | - | initial probability || 1 || 2 || 3 || 4 | - | event 1 || 0.20 || X || 0.90 || 0.50 || 0.15 | - | event 2 || 0.70 || 0.35 || X || 0.20 || 0.30 | - | event 3 || 0.35 || 0.10 || 0.40 || X || 0.05 | - | event 4 || 0.10 || 0.15 || 0.50 || 0.60 || X |} 

Now the interpretation for the respective pairs of events can take place: Event 2 has one - isolated regarded - probability from 0,70. Now however if event 1 occurs, then the probability increases that also event 2 occurs on 0,90.Ebenso is - isolated regarded - the probability that event 3 occurs 0,35. Now in addition, if event 2 occurs, then the probability of the entrance of event 3 to 0,20 is reduced.

4. Analysis of sensitivity: After completion of the CROSS Impact matrix with a computer program several test runs are accomplished, in order to co-ordinate the matrix better. Events are coincidentally selected, and computed occurring or non--occurring and the influences on all events, resulting in from it.

Evaluation

A critical view shows some weaknesses of the CROSS Impact analysis:

• the selection and evaluation of the relevant factors are subjective
• the analysis builds an event on data's pairs up in the material world can however several developments at the same time affect
• collecting and evaluating of the data can be very time-consuming - so approximately already 870 influences are to be computed for the evaluation of 30 possible events

Nevertheless however straight this detailed occupation with different factors of influence and their effects of one of the largest advantages is the CROSS Impact analysis. It can give crucial mental impetuses for alternative proceedings or show new ways.

See also

Scenario technology

Literature

• Luis F. David B. Ashley: Project management decision making using CROSSes impact analysis, internationally journal OF Project management of volume. 16, No. 3, pp. 142-152, 1998
• And Asan, C.E. Bozdag, Seckin Polat: A fuzzy approach ton qualitative CROSSes impact analysis, Dep. OF Industrial engineering, Istanbul Technical University, 2004
• Enzer, Selwyn: CROSS Impact Techniques in Technology Assessment, Futures, volume. 4, No. 1, 1972
• T.J. Gordon: CROSS Impact Method, 1994
• T.J. Gordon and H. Hayward: Initially experiment with the CROSS Impact Method OF Forcasting, Futures, volume. 1, No. 2, P. 101-116, 1968
• William G. Sullivan, Ph.D.: A CROSS Impact analysis OF the solarly space heating and cooling industry, Industial management - July August, 1978

Related links

• Illinois of institutes OF Technology: CROSS Impact matrix Method OF Forecasting

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