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The early recognition system concentrates on recognizing possible erroneous trends, from which a noticeable damage for the enterprise could result, and on the Operationalisierung of risks. The Operationalisierung contains the allocation from risks to risk fields and the risk accomplishment under allocation of responsibilities. At the same time early recognition system in addition, the use of chances contain. Early warning systems can be directed toward the total company both on individual divisions and. To differentiate therefore the employment is in the operational-short term range (e.g. for konjunturelle developments) and the employment in the strategic planning, with which above all so-called weak signals are indicated concerning structural changes.

A systematic procedure, which contains all necessary steps to the early recognition as well as alternative regulations, is essential, since it concerns with the crisis causes particularly concatenations several interference factors. Typical symptoms of a crisis are profitability problems or a too high fixed cost load with simultaneous decrease in sale.

An early recognition system covers four steps:

  • Definition of observation ranges
  • Regulation of early warning indicators
  • Determination of desired values and tolerance limits for each early warning indicator
  • Definition of the data processing

Early recognition systems, which are based on characteristic numbers, orient themselves at threshold values of fixed sizes. During excess of the threshold values, an early warning is released. As achievement yardstick in particular cash flow, interest factors, inflation, yield on equity, capital net yield, yield on turnover as well as the Return on Equity are used. It is problematic that the information is based on past data and does not illustrate thus future events.

Early recognition systems on basis 1998 separating ducks law as a check and transparency in the division (KonTraG) have the task to recognize risks for an enterprise in time in order to be able to repel the risks promptly. By the risk identification, which risk analysis, which becomes risk evaluation as well as the risk aggregation so-called early warning indicators prepared, which exhibit a stronger future referringness in their indicator orientation contrary to the purely characteristic number-oriented systems. Relevant events and developments, from which risks in addition, chances can result, become both enterprise internal and - externally systematically observes. Early warning is released, as soon as an indicator deviates from a fixed range of tolerance. In addition, indicators remain knowing to a large extent limited to quantitative information and thereby qualitative changes in the enterprise not to seize. This is problematic in particular because also qualitative changes such as fluctuations in the management, which handing negative messages over in the management or the missing documentation of management plans and - decisions possible early warning indicators for management risks represent.


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