The Kondratjew cycles (older Transkription Kondratieff cycles) describe a cyclic economic development, which the Russian economist Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratjew believed to have discovered. The existence of "“Kondratjew cycles"” is however not undisputed.

Development

Kondratjew published 1926 in the citizens of Berlin magazine "“archives for social science and social politics"” its essay "“the long waves of the economic situation"”. Herein it determined on the basis empirical material from Germany, France, England and the USA that the short economic cycles are overlaid by long Konjunkturwellen. These 40 to 60 years lasting long waves consist of a longer persisting ascent phase and a somewhat shorter phase of descent. The low is crossed on the average after 52 years.

Kondratjew could determine at this time two and a half of such long waves, whereby he assumed itself the third wave end of the 20's 20. Century its end zuneigen became, which also arrived (collapse of the stock market and world economic crisis). He does not see a cause for these long waves in law moderatenesses of capitalism, during new techniques causes, but consequences of the long waves are.

Joseph Schumpeter

Joseph Schumpeter coined/shaped 1939 in its work over economic cycles for these long Konjunkturwellen the term of the "“Kondratjew cycles"” and put out that the basis for these long waves fundamental technical innovations were, which lead to a circulation in production and organization. It coined/shaped the term of the basis innovations for these, whereby it left open, which leads to their emergence and thus to a new "“Kondratjew cycle"”. For it here not the discovery was basis innovations decisive separates their broad employment.

Further one

Lately Leo Nefiodow and Erik concerned themselves, internationally Christopher Freeman and Carlota Perez among other things with the Kondratjew cycles. Emphasis here is often working current fifth and a future sixth Kondratjew out. The "“international"” school consists mainly of neo Schumpeterianern, if also not all neo Schumpeterianer is cycle theoreticians.

Organization of the economic development into Kondratjew cycles

Over the temporal operational sequence of the Kondratjews agreement generally exists, although with some deviations.

1. Period (approx. 1780-1849): Early mechanization; Beginning of the industrialization in Germany; "“Steam engine Kondratjew"”. There are assumptions that there was an earlier cycle in England already.
2. Period (approx. 1849-1890): Second industrielle revolution "“railway Kondratjew"” (Bessemer steel and steam ships)
3. Period (approx. 1890-1940): "“Electro-technology and Schwermaschinen Kondratjew"” (also chemistry)
4. Period (approx. 1940-1990): "“Einzweck automation Kondratjew"” (basis innovations: Integrated circuit, nuclear energy, transistor, computer and the automobile)
5. Period (starting from 1990): "“Information and communication technology Kondratjew"”

Is naturally disputed, which technology the "“6. Kondratjew will dominate"”. Nefiodow was used first, that the theory being enough waves for prognosis purposes and thus the 6. Kondratjewzyklus forecast and described. Possible candidates for this are:

• Biotechnology
• Nano-technology
• Technology of the regenerativ energies
• Psychosocial health and authority

Criticism of the Kondratjew cycles

By opponents of the Kondratjew cycles one states among other things, the separation from trend (long-term growth) and cycle (of it deviating developments) is today unresolved until. Depending upon choice of the trend component (e.g. by a polynomial) nearly arbitrary waves could be produced. The problem shows up already in the fact that the popular graphic wave representations never exhibit an inscription of the y axis. That is not a mistake of the respective author, but the fact owed that it does not give long rows (e.g. development of the gross domestic product), a such wave shape exhibited those directly (S. for this Reuter 2000, S. 33ff. - the inscription of the y axis is in the newer literature, among other things Perez or Freeman, however fundamental the case).

The criticism at the Kondratjew cycles resulted at least from it that substantial principles the standard Textbook Economics question their existence, on this theory building however the university economics dominating today is partly also based.

Literature

• Kondratieff, Nikolai D., "“the long waves of the economic situation"”, archives for social science and social politics, Bd. 56 (1926), 573-609.
• Freeman, Chris and Francisco '' As Time Goes By. From the Industrial revolution ton the information Revolution', 'Oxford: Oxford University press, 2001.
• Perez, Carlota, Technological revolution and Financial Capital: The Dynamics OF Bubbles and golden Ages, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2002.
• Schumpeter, Joseph A., economic cycles - a theoretical, historical and statistic analysis of the capitalistic process, 2 Bde., Goettingen: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, 1961.
• Nefiodow, Leo A., the sixth Kondratieff. St.Augustin, 2001.
• Reuter, Norbert, "“being enough period"”. To the evolution of growth bases in industrial companies, Marburg: Metropolis, 2000.
• Erik, the history of the future, Moers: Brendow 2003.
• Erik, Kondratieffs world, Moers: Brendow 2005.
• Peter F.N.,

Related links

• The 6. Kondratjew

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