The median voter model serves in (new) the political (= economic theory of the policy) the illustration of the behavior of parties. From the model it can be concluded that the positions of the parties will adapt themselves in the long run to the center.

Acceptance

The model proceeds for the illustration from a two-party system; a party is classified as rather "„left "“, the other one than rather "„right "“. Also simplifying it is assumed that that voters let themselves be arranged in inquiries in two spectra, "„left "“and "„right "“. Between an extreme left classification of a voter and an extreme right a continuous gradation is possible.

Idea

Voters, whose political-ideological opinions lie on the left of the left party, will select the left party, since they will better represent from it. Are turned around voters, whose opinions lie on the right of the right party, which select a right party. These edges do not have to consider the two parties with their expressions, the voices are to a certain extent already safe them.

The median voter model therefore assumes in the election campaign particularly contests the positions of the political center are. If the left party moves close more near by program to the right party, then it can decrease these votes. The right party is turned around to be anxious to move further to the left. It takes place a fight for the center. For the Wahlausgang median voter is called crucial voters of the center.

The phenomenon is strengthened on the assumption of an approximately normaldistributed voter classification, since thereby in the center particularly many voices are to be particularly gotten. Here it is noted that a genuine normal distribution would permit also negative values and values over 100%.

Double median voter model

The described model is going by expandable that in left parties rather right leading candidates are set up and in reverse in right parties rather link. In this way one promises oneself a better possibility of winning the median votes.

In this way explainably, why in social-democratic parties frequently to the conservative wing belonging candidate intersperses himself, in conservative parties against it frequently candidates who belong to the social wing, become. The positions of the leading candidates are therefore often less far apart than the positions of the parties themselves.

History

The median voter model was described for the first time 1948 in Duncan Blacks article on the rational ones OF Group Decision making. Spreading found it particularly by Anthony Downs' book at Economic Theory OF Democracy (1957). First beginnings to the model are however already with Condorcet and Harold Hotelling. For this reason the median voter model occasionally also Hotelling Downs model is called.

Evaluation

Occasionally it is criticized that the model can be used only in the case of two-party directly. Also a reduction corresponds to the political reality on "„left "“and "„right "“not, with respect to which between social liberals and socialconservative, restaurant economics and restaurant economics, ecology-friendly and ecology-hostile and many further positions can be differentiated.

This is however at least analytically no problem, since one can lay the further positions on of the parties on further dimensions of the coordinate system. For example one was then received with the axle ecology-friendly-ecology-hostilely a three-dimensional coordinate system, in which in principle the same considerations are possible. Multidimensional (in particular more than three-dimensional) Koordinatensyssteme is however somewhat more unanschaulicher for it.

Result

Despite the simplified acceptance of the model crucial knowledge of the behavior of parties in a political system can be won on its basis. This applies in particular to two-party systems. Thus the forecasts of the model in such systems can be observed frequently, approximately in election campaigns in the USA.

But the model can be extended in principle to multiple party systems, approximately on Germany. This also, because also in multiple party systems frequently only the selection consists of two political camps. Experiences showed that the neglect of wings to splitting off and/or reestablishments of parties can lead, either, because problem areas were neglected (ecology alliance 90/Die the Green) or ideologies were not continued to serve (interventionism the left wing party).

Literature

• Roger Congleton: The median Voter Model (pdf). In: Rowley, R.K.; Cutter, F. (Hrsg.): The Encyclopedia OF Public Choice. 2002.
• Anthony Downs: At Economic Theory OF Democracy. New York 1957. German: Economic theory of the democracy. 1968.

See also

• Ice salesman to beach problem
• Arrow theorem

Articles in category "Median voter model"

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