Different forms of reserves

The estimation of the reserves of an oil field takes place at the time of his discovery by the geologist and engineer. On these "„initial reserves "“are based the selling price of stores, the investments to its development and the value of a promoting enterprise. This first estimation is very uncertain, and this not so much due to missing technology, but rather because of the financial sums, which are thereby in the play. Thus the US-American oil company triton (today Amerada Hess) estimated 1988 the potential of the recently discovered Colombian oil field Cuisana on three billion barrel. The message of this relatively large quantity of again-found oil let the share quotation rise. After BP had begun with the exploitation, a renewed examination promised however only 1.5 billion barrel. Specialists of the ASPO estimate the reserves today only on only 800 millions barrels. After an oil field was once discovered, different values for the reserves still which can be discovered result depending upon extrapolation:

• The first value is called proven reserves or F95. It describes the quantity of oil, which can be promoted with today's means with a probability of 95 %. The definition of proven reserves varies from state to state substantially. Like that it is usual in the United States to distinguish only such reserves as proven with the promoting boreholes in contact. This is thus a careful estimation, which permits it however to increase the reserves by tapping one since decades well-known source simply. Saudi Arabia classifies those, which are not yet exploited turned around as proven reserves also. It is accepted by Venezuela that it in-counts parts of unorthodox reserves (bitumen from the Orinoco) into its conventional reserves also.
• The second value is called probable reserves or F50 and describes the quantity of oil, which can be promoted with a probability of 50 %.
• The third value, called possible reserves or F5, is the quantity of oil, whose promotion becomes possible only with a very high acceptance price, which justifies the investments. The probability to promote this oil amounts to 5 %.

For Algeria for example F95 amounts to 1.7 billion barrel, F50 comes on 6,9 billion barrel, and F5 results in 16.3 billion barrel (source: United States Geology Survey). These probabilities serve straight in third world countries, whose foreign exchange depends mainly on the raw material export, among other things to evaluate the financial power of a country. Governments and banks use usually an average value of these three values; in the case Algeria are this 7.7 billion barrel. The chance for the discovery of such quantities is thus with less than 50 %. To the topic of the reserves oil-promoting countries react very sensitively. Thus the Russian parliament passed a law in the year 2002, according to which on the betrayal of the true Russian up to seven years prison threaten. The different estimations specified above can be justified with the fact that there are different sorts of oil:

• Conventional oil (95 % of what was so far promoted)
• Unorthodox oil:
  • Oil shale
  • Generally oil, which cannot be promoted with today's technology

In the professional world one assumes however unorthodox oil will always play a secondary role, since the exploitation of these stores is although possible, so nevertheless always difficult and expensive. In addition still the fundamental disadvantage of the small yield comes at net energy (see ERoEI), since the promotion and processing of this oil do not stress an addition of energy, which can be neglected, (30 % of the promoted energy in case of of Albertas This increases beyond that substantially the contamination per promoted unit.

Decrease of the world-wide oil fields and final oil crisis

Major item: Oil promotion maximum

At most oil field in the 60's were found. In addition, afterwards until 1980 year by year more new (conventional) oil fields were discovered, than by oil production one produced. Since the new finds do not cover consumption no more for this time, and mankind "“lives"” of the discovered before - which shrink reserves. This circumstance was covered often by the fact that for tactical, respectable business reasons (ratio war of the OPEC, taxation, profitability reserve, ect. "…) Re-valuations on the find of the respective oil fields were not antedated. In this kind until recently by the oil lobby, it was maintained is still promoted more oils found than - without this "“more"” would have come also by only one new find. The tendency of the removing new finds somewhat diminished by more and more the unorthodox oil fields economically degradable owing to higher prices. Unfortunately with it however environmental threats accompany (increased CO2-Ausstoss, local devastations, water consumption).

Thus a process, which is accelerated by the fact, opens a gap between the oil delivery and the conventional oil, which are found new year by year, that the world-wide oil consumption rises continuously. Therefore a final oil crisis is feared, since an increasing demand for oil faces an in the future strongly decreasing offer.

See also

• Oil promotion maximum

Related links

• The last oil crisis (pdf)
• Shrinking oil delivery
• Left, Facts and thoughts on the final oil crisis
• 2010 - the last oil crisis
• When the read oil wave run dry
• DLF report: '' The raw material oil and its future ''
• Oil consumption in the context to total energy consumption
• The end to OF the age OF

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