The prognosis (Greek, - literally the foreknowledge, the "“ahead knowledge"”) (rarely also: ) designates the forecast of an event, condition or a development.

Foundation

Facts, which are often raised with formalized methods (measurements, temporally arranged series of measurements or Simulationen, form the basis of a validen prognosis) for the production from data. On these bases then also forecasts for the future can be made with a certain probability and decisions be met. Here data become, on which the prognosis relies, as (improves or the worse) designation. Contrary to the pure intuition also know-how and its extrapolation rank among the recognized prognosis methods. Such arguable forecasts are methodically important in all fields of the science.

• A substantial characteristic of the decisions within the political-economical range is their future referringness:

1. Decisions are always based on prognoses or prognostic expectations
2. Decisions must objectively under uncertainty please to become. They are risk-loaded, since the Entscheider possesses only imperfect information.

• It comes in the range of sociological prognoses to an additional complication: The "“objects"” of the forecast are participants ("“subjects"”) and could due to the prognosis their behavior change. (See in addition the "“destructive"” and the "“fulfilling prophecy"”.)

Requirements

A number of requirements of a conclusive prognosis is called:

1. : The following statement pattern should not occur: "“Morning rains it or also not"”
2. Objectivity: Examinableness of the method, in addition also the full information and specification of the conditions (so-called basic conditions) belong, on which the arrival of the prognosticated result is made dependent.
3. Validity: Actually one prognosticates, which is to be

Kinds of prognosis techniques

A prognosis procedure should be better than the naive prognosis, since otherwise additional expenditure is not worthwhile itself in relation to the naive prognosis.

Prognosis techniques can be arranged in different kinds. Concerning their horizon short, central and long-term prognoses can be differentiated. Beyond that one differentiates qualitative and quantitative can her technology additional concerning her production perspective in "“Top down"” and "“Bottom UP"” be differed. The simplest prognosis procedure is the naive prognosis. Qualitative prognosis techniques - subjective estimates are, those from experts with a matured specialized knowledge to be intuitively provided - a possible variant is linear extrapolation --> past values roughly into the future projected - further variants --> public opinion polls or life cycle analyses - try trends to foresee - is more complex - supply rather little concrete numbers - (e.g. share quotations, technical development, long-term weather forecast) quantitative prognosis techniques - consist mainly of the processing of data - give concrete, numerical results - (e.g. tax revenue, population development, election results)

Top Down/Bottom UP prognosis of the Top down Prognoseansatz is centralistic and is suitable particularly for stable demand situations. An enterprise has for example 4 selling centers, their need in the past 4:3: 2: 1 was distributed, then an aggregated demand quantity would be distributed on basis of the demand of the entire market in appropriate relationship to the selling centers. With the Bottom UP Prognosemethode each selling center would provide its prognoses themselves and to the manufacturing plant would convey, where they were aggregated. The method considers the regional market tendencies, is however more difficult to organize.

Examples of important quantitative prognosis techniques

With the quantitative procedures, which are based on heuristics and computing procedures, linear and multi-dimensional procedures are differentiated.

Linear procedures need a large data set, it supply worse values with long-term prognoses and supply also with strong paragraph fluctuations frequently bad prognoses. They can be systematized however well and be begun at a large number of products. Beyond that they are easily understandable. Acquaintance linear procedures are e.g. --> exponential smoothing, trend prognosis, sliding averages (here tumbling average values used) Mulitdimensionale procedure to be based on the causality of the paragraph numbers to different variables, like price and graduations. It is assumed the fact that the paragraph with factors as e.g. with mineral water in direct relationship stands for the weather with the ice or the season. Acquaintance multi-dimensional procedures are --> models and involution analysis

• Trend prognosis: Projection of a value row into the future.
• Exponential smoothing: During the exponential smoothing it concerns a prognosis procedure, with which future values on the basis of past values are predicted.
• Regression account: Analysis of functional connections between at least two sizes.
• models

Examples of important qualitative prognosis techniques

• Delphi method: This is a written, multi-phase questioning of experts, whereby these are informed with each new question round about the results of the previous round.
• Scenario technology: Mental analysis of the expected development of individual subsystems and computation of the development of the overall system due to these single prognoses.
• Relevance tree procedure: Is close to the game theory. Retrograde derivative situations due to the decision theory, given by solution types for.
• Historical analogy: Analysis of a development in timing. Market-specific details are to a considerable degree considered.

Areas of application within the field of the social sciences

Sociology

Here particularly the choice research is to be called within the field of the politics policy.

Marketing and management

• Long-term forecast of sales prospects and market potentials for new products (e.g. Delphi method).
• Derivative of partial goals and strategies, for example for the development of long-term strategies (e.g. relevance tree procedures).
• Forecast of product life cycles for new products (e.g. historical analogy).
• Stock prognosis (e.g. trend prognosis, exponential smoothing)
• Turnover prognosis with stable conditions (e.g. trend prognosis, exponential smoothing)

National economy

Economical prognoses usually in the spring and in the autumn provided for the current thing and the coming year. Medium-term prognoses cover some further future years. Long period prognoses are measured after decades. Most overall economic institutions for prognosis are public, some companies - e.g. major banks - have also own economical departments, which provide overall economic prognoses.

See here also the community diagnosis of the research institutes for economics.

Politics and political science

Beside the Think not always public in their method choice tanks of parties and politicians/inne/n exist for prognosis purposes - for instance at the German Federal Government - special commissions, for instance the board of experts for the investigation of the overall economic development or the protection commission with the Federal Minister of the Interior; also the government gives prognoses off (see their yearly economic reports).

International organizations such as OECD, IWF and European Union commission have appropriate subsidiary organizations and/or advisers and to give likewise prognoses off.

Prognosis error

Despite all efforts to optimize prognoses technically between the prognosis and the actually occurring event ever larger or smaller deviations will exist. It is very important therefore - also with the choice of the correct prognosis model - to evaluate the quality of the selected or the regarded procedure by determination of the prognosis errors. In the context of qualitative prognosticating prognosis error can be quantified not from the beginning. Error causes are among other things:

• Recent values are overestimated
• Apparent samples are recognized, which are heuristically existent however,
• special events remain in the memory, while normal are fast forgotten
• Desire conceptions can flow into prognoses

When quantitative prognosticating with the located prognosis error the prognosis accuracy is evaluated. The most usual procedures are briefly specified in the following one:

• Mean squared error (MSE)
• Mean absolute deviation (WAD)
• Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

MAPE indicates a relative value, whereby he opens other than the MSE and WAD, which are indicated in absolute numbers.

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