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The public opinion poll (also: Demoscopy - from the old-Greek = "people" + =" (out) ") serves the determination of "publicly becoming opinions", i.e. of insights, attitudes, tendencies or desires of the population. It is a subsection of the psychology and the sociology.

Public opinion poll is based on a data analysis. By questionings on the basis of a representative cross section of the population source data are collected and interpreted following. The questioning can take place either personally (CAPI), by telephone (CATI) or via an on-line questionnaire. In the public opinion poll it can concern both unique Probeerhebungen as well as long-term investigations. Long-term investigations can either in form of repeated questionings (e.g. the Sundays question) or in the form of panel investigations to take place, with which during one period repeated by often several years the same persons are asked. The latter is to be able to measure in particular importantly around changes in the opinion in detail. The used questionnaires instrument is called and contains frequently a standardized block of questions, in order to make the comparability possible of the results for different collection times.

Problems in the public opinion poll

Public opinion poll raises the requirement the public opinion to show. However it encounters thereby various problems:

Straight one if of an opinion on behavior backclosed will is, is often it shown that the opinion deviates over a behavior from the actual behavior of the asked one.
In particular as socially unwanted felt opinions/behavior a part of the asked ones is inclined to admit these not.
Both by the behavior of the interviewer and by suggestive questions it is possible to provoke certain answers. This is to be avoided, occurs however in practice nevertheless regularly.
With clients, who would like to get a before-calm opinion tendentious confirmed, the kind can to be served to the question as also the selection of the pro gangs of favouring certain Ergbebnisse.
With direct, personal questionings it can occur that the interviewers often working in precarious employer-employee relationships "invent" questioning results, in order to up-improve their content. This is possible, if they are paid per questionnaire.
In particular with telephone questionings doubts are appropriate at the representative office, since for the telephone interviews frequently only the "family head in such a way specified" was asked. In addition all fall out those of the sample, which such telephone inquiries face negatively and do not therefore even deal with it.
The asked circle of acquaintances is often very small selected, in order to keep the analysis work as small as possible. However thereby the representative office of the results suffers. In particular if sub-groups are formed, the amount of that can be actually in addition to asked persons also times with only 20 or still under which can hardly be regarded as representative.
In particular with the election to the Bundestag in Germany in the autumn 2005 it showed up that the Demoskopen makes clearly wrong forecasts with errors of 5% and more. Assumed in concrete case is still unclear, where exactly the cause lay, it however that traditionally very much high party connection in Federal Republic of Germany gradually on values drops, as she is already longer observed in the USA and therefore the Korrekturfaktoren, with which the source data are weighted, their validity gradually to lose and to the changed social perception to be adapted have.

Secured results of the public opinion poll

Actually occupied results of this branch of the political psychology are RSR. The investigations of Shanto Iyengar, which proved at least an influence of the mass media, supply a first beginning. Afterwards both the word choice and the sequence of the presented messages in the published opinion has influence on the importance, which the pro gangs assign to certain political topics.

Polling institutes

The polling institutes try to adjust these well-known sources of error with different methodical beginnings by means of statistic interpretation.

Well-known polling institutes in Germany are:

TNS Emnid
Infas
Forsa
Metrinomics
PSYMA GROUP
TNS Infratest
Infratest dimap
the research group elections
Institut for demoscopy (IfD) in all brook

Largest German Institut of the industry is those

Society for consumer research (GRP) in Nuremberg.

Ranges of application

Public opinion poll is often used in the policy, the media, the economy and the social research.

In the policy public opinion poll becomes on the one hand in the choice research related, on the other hand in the questioning specific politics policies. Democracy-theoretically this often encounters criticism: the adjustment of the policy at the public opinion poll scoops out more traditional and proven forms of the political will formation. The orientation of the policy at the opinion raised by uncertain concepts will prefer populist in place of contentwise correct solutions.

The economy uses the public opinion poll particularly in the area of the market study.