A risk (of Arab rizq, which of God grace or fate dependent living costs) is the calculated prognosis of a possible damage and/or loss in the negative case (danger) or a possible use and/or profit in the positive case (chance). Which is understood as damage or use, depends on value conceptions. Therefore risk can also as threat of a value for someone by circumstances (like e.g. Natural occurences) or an action to be defined. Since the value conceptions diverge strongly, also the risk evaluations are very different. (Which for the one loss is, meant possibly for another a profit.) a risk is the probability of occurring a negative event (mathematical) or the probability of occurring a negative event multiplies by the financial extent (BWL). One can go to risks in addition, out of the way. For this exist fastidious concepts in the Antonym to "“risk"” are "“security"”.

General information

In the colloquial language "“risk"” appears often equivalent important with danger ("“felt danger"”). Often there are several risks at the same time, and a problem during the evaluation of a risk is that it does not only concern a possible event. The tendency often also exists to neglect substantial risks and to regard only the nearest. If the risk is so small that it is regarded as negligible, then it is often designated "“residual risk"”. False estimates of risks can lead however negative consequences (disasters) always also too much. Quotation: "“Who dares, wins - except he loses"”.

Misinterpretation: Frequently the Chinese combination of signs for risk is misinterpreted: The Chinese word for risk consists of two indications which can be translated individually into chance and danger. This combination refers however not to chance as favorable opportunity (thus not as positive contrast to the negative danger), but to chance as mathematical probability; the sense of the Chinese combination of signs would be <chance therefore in place and gefahr> rather with <wahrscheinlichkeit gefahr> to translate).

Risk in the statistics

In the decision theory risk aversion designates the characteristic of a Entscheiders that these with the choice between several alternatives with same expectancy value, which alternative with that prefers smallest risk concerning result.

The probability results from the relationship of the assumed cases of damage to the altogether possible cases. So the risk with a cube is to be thrown 4, to 1 from 6 and/or 1 to 5. If with the 4 a loss is connected, this corresponds to the danger, however with the 4 a profit is obtained, then one speaks of chance (chance only in the positive sense). Danger and chance are here thus complementary terms. First calculates the probability of a damage and/or a loss, the latter probability of a use and/or a profit.

The kartesianische probability sets the assumed to the possible cases into the relationship and lies thus between zero and unity. For above ex. it amounts to 1/6=0,1666"… . Often the risk exists in a damage or a loss. The negative event one can quite be from use for the other one.

Risk in the decision theory

The decision theory differentiates the behavior of a Entscheiders in the face of a risk situation.

• Risk aversion or risk shyness designates the characteristic of a Entscheiders that this prefers the alternative with that with the choice between several alternatives with same expectancy value (= probability of entrance x use height) smallest risk concerning the result. The risk-shy Entscheider prefers thus as safe a profit as possible, even if this precipitates small.

• Risk neutrality means that a Entscheider is indifferent concerning the risk. That is, that it makes its decision alone on the basis the expectancy value and does not include the bare risk into its decision also.

• Risk sympathy or risk joy designates the characteristic of a Entscheiders that this prefers the alternative with the highest risk with the choice between several alternatives with same expectancy value concerning the result - and concomitantly the highest profit -. The risk-joyful Entscheider prefers as high a profit as possible, even if it is uncertain whether he gets it.

• [[Risk definition after franc Knight 1921 in its book "“Risk, Uncertainty and profit"”

>The distinction between risk and uncertainty: If you don't know for sure what wants to happen, but you know the odds, that's risk. If you don't even know the odds, that's uncertainty<Frei translates: If we do not know reliably, what will happen, but the probability of entrance is, the risk. If we do not however even know the probability of entrance, it is uncertainty. This definition brings the aspect of risk with the probability of entrance of the actual risk event in connection with the mathematical-statistic probability calculation and represents risk as "“calculably"” and at the same time as "“controllable"”.]]

Risk in the engineering science

Safety engineers name the product of "“probability of entrance"” "“risk"” times "“event weight"” and/or "“extent of the damage"”; here difficult determination and quantification problems step on (see and require a qualitative procedure for the

I.e.: Risk = probability of entrance * extent of the damage

The probability of entrance designates thereby the chance that an event occurs within a certain time interval. Thus 0.001/Jahr e.g. means that on a probability of 1:1000 on the fact it is to be counted that a damage event occurs.

The unit of the extent of the damage depends on respective subject. Financial values can be ($), in addition, dead ones or the total loss of an airplane. Each extent of the damage in money can of course be expressed, finally is however always subjective and usually domain specific the evaluation.

Risk management

The risk management was established also in the engineering sciences, e.g. with the development of sensitive systems. Contrary to the classical risk management, which is designed by process risks primarily for the minimization, one tries to minimize the product risks with the development of sensitive systems.

By product risks one understands endangerments, which can fall debited to the customer (loss, failure, death, destruction) and concomitantly debited to the manufacturer (adhesion, image loss, maintenance costs). Assistance of a systematic risk management process is to be guaranteed that already with the development identifies product risks, to be evaluated, controlled and supervised.

The substantial steps of a risk management process consist of the phases risk analysis, risk evaluation, minimizing the risk, risk control, risk pursuit. Before the risk analysis a risk graph is specified, which assigns the elementary parameters probability of entrance and extent of the damage to an acceptance range. During the risk evaluation everyone is evaluated in the phase risk analysis identified endangerment under the aspect probability of entrance and extent of the damage. Thus each risk within a range of the risk graph lands. A goal of the minimizing the risk is finally it for all risks, which lie in the inakzeptablen range (and/or in the ALARP range) of the risk graph, to specify measures which reduce probability of entrance and/or extent of the damage. Because of the end no more risk should be to this phase in the inakzeptablen range. In practice the extent of the damage can hardly be usually reduced, a minimizing the risk by decrease of the probability of entrance is mostly reached (e.g. through two-handle operation of industrial presses the probability of entrance for an accident one reduces). During the phase of risk control a re-valuation of all risks finally takes place for the examination of the imported measures, and in order to determine, new risks to measures with itself bring.

Risks within the ALARP range (ALARP means As Low As Reasonably Practicable) are to be minimized on a measure, which is reasonable and feasible. This means for example that if the minimization of a risk would cause higher costs, than the costs are to be expected with entrance of the risk the risk than being tolerably classified can. In this case further measures are not practicable to risk control. A risk use analysis can be used in this case, in order to measure whether the use of the product outweighs the residual risk.

Risk in the sociology

The sociology differentiates usually "“calculable"” "“risks"” from not calculable "“dangers"”.

Articles in category "Risk"

We found here 22 articles.

Related Websites

We found here 3 related websites.

• Palisade Corporation - Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis ...
  Palisade risk analysis, decision analysis, optimization software, and more!


• Risk - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  This article is about the concept of risk. "Danger" also redirects here. ... Risk is often mapped to the probability of some event which is seen as ...


• Risk magazine | risk management, derivatives, structured products
  News, articles, technical papers, books, rankings and surveys on financial risk management, derivatives, structured products, Risk is the world's leading ...